On-Chain
13 articles
Net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), explained
NUPL measures whether the market sits in aggregate profit or loss, and how deeply. How its bands map to euphoria and capitulation across the cycle.
DESKMiner economics after the halving
The halving cuts miner revenue overnight. How hash rate, difficulty, and miner selling pressure adjust, and what desks should watch in the aftermath.
DESKSpent output profit ratio (SOPR), explained
SOPR measures whether coins moving on-chain are being sold at a profit or loss. How the 1.0 line acts as support and resistance for sentiment across the cycle.
DESKRealized price and MVRV: an on-chain valuation primer
Realized cap values coins at last-moved price, not spot. MVRV turns that into an over/undervaluation gauge. How to read it and where it misleads.
DESKCoin days destroyed and HODL waves, explained
Not all volume is equal. CDD weights movement by how long coins sat still; HODL waves show supply by age. How to read old-coin behaviour.
DESKExchange netflows: reading supply pressure on-chain
Coins moving onto exchanges signal sell-side intent; coins leaving signal accumulation. How to use netflows without getting faked out by internal transfers.
DESKMiner outflow as supply signal — what to actually use and what to ignore
Miner-to-exchange flow gets cited as a structural supply indicator. The signal is real but narrow. Here's what's worth tracking and what isn't.
DESKLong-term holder supply changes — accumulation or distribution
LTH cohort supply ticked down 28,000 BTC in May. Headline is distribution; composition shows something more nuanced.
DESKRealized cap shifts in Q2 — cost basis is migrating
Realized cap broke $580B in Q2, with the bulk of the increase coming from coins entering the network at $70K+. The cost basis composition is shifting fast.
DESKSTH supply distribution — short-term holders at break-even
Short-term holder cost basis at $79,400. Spot trading at $80,300. The cohort is at break-even with implications for near-term price behavior.
DESKExchange BTC balances at 5-year lows — the structural supply story
Aggregate exchange BTC balances continue to decline. Over multi-month horizons this is the most reliable supply-side bull signal we have.
DESKMempool fee dynamics as a demand proxy
BTC mempool fees are quietly elevated. The market for blockspace is one of the few real-time demand signals that doesn't get spoofed by financial flows.
DESKWhale wallet activity — signal or noise
Large wallet movements get a lot of coverage. Most of it isn't signal. Here's how to actually read the data.
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