SOPR — Spent Output Profit Ratio — answers one question per coin that moves: was it sold for more or less than it was acquired for? Aggregate that across the chain and you get a clean read on whether the market is realizing profit or capitulating.

The mechanic

For every spent output, SOPR is the value at the moment of spending divided by the value when it was created. Above 1.0, coins are moving in aggregate profit. Below 1.0, in aggregate loss. At 1.0, the marginal coin moves at break-even.

The 1.0 line is the one that matters. In an uptrend, dips toward 1.0 that hold mark spots where holders refuse to sell at a loss — break-even acts as support. In a downtrend, rejections at 1.0 show holders selling every bounce back to cost basis. Same line, opposite signal depending on regime.

Cohort splits do the real work

Aggregate SOPR is noisy. The cohort versions carry the signal:

  1. STH-SOPR — short-term holders, coins younger than ~155 days. This is the reactive, news-driven cohort. STH-SOPR puncturing below 1.0 and staying there is recent buyers capitulating.
  2. LTH-SOPR — long-term holders. Spikes well above 1.0 flag old supply moving into strength — distribution into demand, the hallmark of late-cycle euphoria.
  3. aSOPR — the adjusted series strips outputs younger than an hour to filter exchange-internal noise. Use it over raw SOPR for the cleaner aggregate.

Reading resets

The high-conviction reads cluster at the extremes:

  • Deep aSOPR flushes below 1.0 that then reclaim the line have repeatedly marked local capitulation bottoms — forced loss-taking exhausting itself.
  • STH-SOPR rejecting 1.0 from below confirms break-even has flipped from support to resistance: a regime tell, not a timing tool.
  • LTH-SOPR ramping while price stalls is the distribution warning.

Takeaway

SOPR is a profit-and-loss tape for the chain, and the 1.0 line is its fulcrum — support in uptrends, resistance in downtrends. Lean on aSOPR and the STH/LTH split rather than the raw aggregate, treat deep sub-1.0 flushes that reclaim as capitulation resets, and read sustained LTH-SOPR spikes as old supply selling into strength. It is a regime and context tool, not an entry trigger.