BTC aggregate realized cap broke through $580B in late Q2, an increase of $38B QoQ. The headline number is interesting but the composition of the increase is more so: roughly 78% of the new realized value came from coins moving at price points above $70K.

This is cost basis migration in action. Understanding it changes how you read network conviction levels.

What realized cap measures

Realized cap values each BTC at the price it last moved, then sums the entire supply. It's a more conservative valuation than market cap (which values every BTC at current spot). The ratio MVRV (market cap / realized cap) is one of the cleanest read on cycle position — above 3 historically signals overvaluation, below 1 historically signals capitulation.

Current MVRV: 2.4. Within normal range, not at extremes.

The interesting layer is what's underneath the realized cap number. Specifically, what price points was the supply last moved at.

Cost basis distribution in Q2

Breaking down BTC supply by the price level at which each coin last moved (the "UTXO Realized Price Distribution"):

  • Coins last moved below $30K: 2.84M BTC (down from 3.21M at Q1 end)
  • Coins last moved $30K-$60K: 4.62M BTC (down from 4.85M)
  • Coins last moved $60K-$70K: 2.14M BTC (down from 2.31M)
  • Coins last moved $70K-$80K: 3.18M BTC (up from 2.89M)
  • Coins last moved $80K+: 2.62M BTC (up from 2.14M)

The migration is clear: ~880,000 BTC moved from the lower cost-basis bands into the higher bands during the quarter. This is supply being "re-stamped" at higher prices.

Why this matters structurally

Three implications:

Effective support levels are rising. Heavy concentration of cost basis at $70-80K creates psychological and behavioral support there. Holders who acquired at $75K are far less likely to sell below their cost. As more supply moves into this band, the floor strengthens.

The "old hands" cohort is shrinking but not selling deep. Coins last moved below $30K — the deepest conviction holders — have decreased by ~370K BTC over the quarter. But the absolute remaining cohort (2.84M BTC) is still the second-largest cost-basis band. These holders aren't capitulating; they're trickling out at significant profits.

Realized cap is no longer a "fair value" proxy at the same levels it used to be. If you anchor on $580B realized cap and treat it as a soft valuation floor (as some analysts do), you need to update the framework. The composition is now skewed toward recent high-price entries, not legacy low-cost-basis holders. Realized cap will move up faster than it did in previous cycles because more supply is in higher bands.

What this looks like at cycle peaks historically

Cycle peaks have shown distinctive cost-basis migration patterns:

2017 peak. Roughly 65% of supply had cost basis within 30% of the spot peak. Indicator of "everyone got in late."

2021 peak. ~58% of supply within 30% of peak. Slightly more diversified cost basis than 2017.

Current. ~42% of supply within 30% of current spot ($80K). Less concentrated than at prior peaks. Suggests we may not be at a cycle peak — there's still significant supply held at substantially lower cost basis.

The conclusion: cost basis migration is happening, but the network is not yet at the "everyone is at the highs" configuration that has marked previous tops.

On-chain conviction read

Two complementary metrics:

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio). Measures the average profit/loss of coins being moved. Current SOPR at 1.21 — coins moving at 21% average profit. Not at extreme levels. Cycle tops have shown SOPR readings above 1.5 sustained for multiple weeks.

Unrealized profit/loss (NUPL). Aggregate network unrealized P&L. Currently at +52% — Belief band, not Euphoria. Cycle peaks have shown NUPL above +65%.

Both confirm the realized cap composition read: we're in a structurally bullish but not euphoric configuration.

Trade implications

For long-horizon positioning:

  • Cost basis below $70K is structurally undervalued relative to migration trajectory. If you're sizing long-term positions, accumulation in the $70-78K range is consistent with how the broader network is repricing.
  • Spot below $70K remains rare-event opportunity given concentration of bid at $74K and above.

For risk management:

  • A material price drop below $68K would force forced selling from the recent cost-basis band. That's where stop-loss cascade risk lives.
  • $68K is the cleaner downside risk line than $65K or $70K.

Bottom line

Realized cap composition is migrating to higher cost basis. Network conviction is structurally bullish, not euphoric. The configuration looks more like mid-cycle continuation than cycle peak, based on cost-basis distribution patterns from prior peaks.

Watch the >$80K cost-basis bucket. As more supply migrates there, the floor at $74-78K strengthens. The cleanest support read isn't on the chart, it's in the cost-basis distribution.