Short-term holder (STH) aggregate cost basis sits at $79,400 as of last on-chain print. Spot is trading $80,300. The cohort is roughly at break-even — a configuration that has historically led to one of two outcomes within 2-4 weeks.

What STH cost basis represents

STH is the cohort holding coins under 155 days. Aggregate STH cost basis is the average price across all coins in this cohort, weighted by amount. It's a proxy for the average entry point of "fresh capital" in the network.

The relevant signal: when spot is materially above STH cost basis, the cohort is in profit and tends to hold. When spot is below, the cohort is in loss and tends to panic-sell. When spot is near STH cost basis (break-even), the cohort is at the decision boundary.

Historical pattern at STH break-even

Looking at the last 12 instances where spot moved to within 1.5% of STH cost basis:

  • 8 instances: spot bounced. Within 2-4 weeks, spot was 8-15% above STH cost. Continuation.
  • 3 instances: spot broke below STH cost. Within 2-4 weeks, spot was 12-25% below. Capitulation cascade.
  • 1 instance: spot ranged at STH cost level for 6+ weeks before resolving.

The 75% bounce rate gives a directional bias but isn't deterministic. The 25% capitulation cases produced the largest absolute moves.

What distinguishes the two outcomes

Comparing the bounce-cases vs capitulation-cases at the moment of STH cost-basis touch:

Bounce-case markers:

  • LTH cohort still net-accumulating (LTH supply growth positive on rolling 30-day basis).
  • ETF flows positive or neutral over the prior 2 weeks.
  • Funding rates not deeply negative (perp funding within +/- 0.005% 8H).
  • Macro environment stable (no Fed decision within 5 days).

Capitulation-case markers:

  • LTH net-distributing for 4+ weeks prior.
  • ETF flows materially negative for 2+ weeks.
  • Funding rates negative for an extended stretch.
  • Coincident macro stress event.

Current configuration

  • LTH supply growth on rolling 30-day basis: slightly negative (-12K BTC). Concerning but not extreme.
  • ETF flows prior 2 weeks: net positive (+$1.4B aggregate). Supportive.
  • Funding rates: mildly positive (+0.004% 8H average across major venues). Neutral.
  • Macro: FOMC scheduled in 9 days. Some event risk.

Three of four markers are in bounce-territory. The slightly negative LTH supply growth is the one concerning signal. Net read: bias toward bounce, with non-zero capitulation risk if macro event surprises.

What spot does in each case

Bounce case mechanics: Spot holds STH cost basis as support. New buying flows in from sidelined capital that views the level as a discount. Within 2-4 weeks, spot trades $86-92K range.

Capitulation case mechanics: Spot breaks below STH cost basis decisively (>3% break). Triggers forced selling from leveraged STH positions. Stop-loss cascade. Spot finds the next support at LTH cost basis ($58K) or at the deepest support of the cost-basis distribution ($45K). The deeper move typically resolves within 4-6 weeks before stabilization.

Trade structures

If positioning for the bounce case:

Long spot at $78-80K with $76K stop. Tight stop limits downside. Targets $86-92K.

Long-dated call options. 60-90 day calls at $90-95K strikes. Cheaper than spot, asymmetric payoff. Survives volatility better.

If positioning for capitulation:

Short spot or long put options on break of $78K. Confirmation-based entry. Lower probability but larger payoff.

Long volatility broadly. Buy front-month straddle if you don't want directional bias.

If uncertain:

Cash, wait for resolution. STH break-even is a decision point. Watching from the sidelines is a valid position when probability bias is unclear.

What to watch in the next 5 trading sessions

Three indicators that will distinguish the resolution path:

ETF net flow daily prints. Daily net positive flow for 3+ sessions is supportive of bounce. Daily net negative for 3+ sessions raises capitulation probability materially.

Spot vs CME basis. If basis stays above 6% annualized, institutional bid is intact and bounce probability rises. Basis collapsing below 3% is warning.

Coinbase premium index. Sustained positive readings indicate US institutional buying. Sustained negative indicate weak US bid into the level.

Bottom line

STH cohort at break-even. Historical bias toward bounce (75% of cases), but the 25% downside cases produced the largest moves. Current configuration leans bounce-ward but FOMC event risk is real.

The next 5-7 trading sessions resolve the direction. Watch ETF flow daily, CME basis term structure, and Coinbase premium as the leading signals. STH cost basis level itself is the line; the indicators tell you which side the market falls on.