Macro
9 articles
The Fear & Greed Index: what it's actually good for
A popular sentiment gauge that's better as a contrarian context tool than a signal. What goes into it, where it misleads, and how desks should use it.
DESKBitcoin as a global liquidity proxy
BTC often tracks global money supply better than any single asset. Why it behaves as a liquidity sponge, how to watch M2, and where the correlation breaks.
DESKReading the Fed: a crypto trader's framework
Crypto trades as a liquidity asset. How rate expectations, the dollar, and real yields transmit into BTC, and which data actually moves the tape.
DESKBTC/gold ratio — what the relationship reveals
BTC/XAU ratio at 27.4, range-bound for six months. The relationship has informational content most desks aren't using.
DESKAsia session vs US session — measurable BTC volatility differences
BTC realized vol in the US session runs 1.3-1.5x the Asia session in 2026. Composition has shifted. Worth knowing for execution timing.
DESKDXY and BTC — the inverse correlation that's fading
BTC vs DXY 90-day rolling correlation has compressed from -0.62 to -0.18 over six months. The relationship is weakening structurally, with implications.
DESKReal yields and crypto — where the threshold lives
Real 10Y yields above 2.5% have reliably pressured BTC since 2022. Currently at 1.9%. Worth understanding the threshold dynamics in detail.
DESKCross-chain liquidity: where it actually goes when capital rotates
Bridge volume tells you where the marginal dollar is moving. Right now: Solana getting flow, ETH-to-L2 elevated, EVM L1s losing share. The pattern matters.
DESKMacro: dollar strength and crypto correlation in 2026
DXY has been a quiet correlate of BTC moves for 5 years. The relationship is real but increasingly weak — and the breaks tell you when other drivers dominate.
DESK